Cognitive Razors To Make Better Decisions

On a weekly basis I make life changing decisions.

To operate or not.

To sacrifice the vessel in order to remove the tumour.

To say there is nothing more we can do.

The ability to make good decisions is the most under-discussed, yet valuable skill you can learn.

A "razor" cuts away what is unnecessary and simplifies decision making.

Here are 10 of my top razors to sharpen your decisions:

Occam’s Razor: (The Original "Razor") :

"Plurality must never be posited without necessity." The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. As society becomes more complex so does our conclusions. But if you hear hooves think horses, not zebras.

Hickam’s Dictum:

"A man can have as many diseases as he damn well pleases.” Originally spoken as a response to Occam's Razor, Hickam's Dictum states in medicine a patient may have more than one problem as an explanation for their illness.

In a broader sense, there may be many causes for a single problem and hence more than one solution is required.

51% Razor :

If you are 51% sure something is correct then make the decision. I’d rather make 100 decisions at 51% and get the 100 pieces of feedback vs 1 decision at 100% and 1 piece of feedback.

There is no failure. Only feedback.

Reversibility Razor:

The 51% Razor is blunted by Reversibility. Some decisions can’t be reversed (like opening a head). Irreversible decisions need a different % success rate that is scenario specific.

Regression Razor:

The quality of your decisions will regress to your mean. You will be wrong. You will be right. Ignore the nadir/zentih of the sine curve. Focus on the midpoint instead.

Skin Razor:

When seeking opinion, give more weight to those with skin in the game over arm chair enthusiasts. There is an apocryphal story of Roman architects having to live with their families under bridges they made for one year.  Sleeping under a bridge of your own making is truly having skin in the game.

Feynman Razor:

If you can’t explain the reason for your decision to a child, you don’t understand it yourself. True experts can deconstruct and simply complex concepts to the point that they could explain them to a child. If your decision making is clear, the explanation for it should be simple.

The Silent Razor:

Reality is bent by silent evidence. History is written by the victors and yet those whose stories do not survive have also shaped the world. For any complex decision, there will be factors at play that are not initially obvious. In fact, the problem at hand may be due to the absence of something, as opposed to the presence.

Urgent/Important Razor:

To decide if you need to decide, use the urgent/important matrix. Urgent jobs demand your time and attention and are usually aligned with other’s goals. Important jobs are aligned with your own goals.

Watch this for my real world explanation of urgent versus important.

AI Razor:

Where possible use computer algorithms to confirm your decision making. If conflict in a naive AI go with human. If conflict in establishes AI go with computer. In the future we will not be replaced by AI. Instead those who do not learn to work along side AI will be replaced by those who do.

Remember.

There is a difference between being decisive and a good decision maker. Decisive people make decisions quickly. Good decisions lead to good outcomes.

Do not conflate the two, but aim for their unity.

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